$POLYCULE
token pPOLYCULElivemag7prediction-marketpolymarketconcentratedopen-relationshipThe Polycule
Six mega-caps, one open relationship. We love them all, just not equally: affection is allocated daily by Polymarket's odds of who ends the year as the biggest company on earth. Currently very into Nvidia.
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The crowd picks the favourites; the fund sizes by conviction. Once a day the keeper reads Polymarket's odds on which company ends 2026 as the largest on earth and turns them straight into target weights: a 4% floor so nobody gets ghosted, a 50% cap so nobody moves in entirely. The primary partner today is NVDA at roughly 50%; the secondaries (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA) rotate as the odds move, and the basket only trades when a weight drifts more than 300 bps from target. Practise compersion: when a partner you hold less of rallies, its odds usually rise with it, and the next rebalance buys more of it. The risks are the honest ones: the Polymarket book is thin enough to be nudged, odds are not returns, and a basket that is half one name will behave like half one name.
- NAV (indexed)
- 99.35
- 24h
- −1.29%
- 7d
- −0.13%
- 30d
- −2.83%
- TVL
- —
- Holdings
- 6
Indicative NAV, 30d
Constant-mix index from tokens.xyz daily closes (CoinGecko for Solana natives). Not realised NAV; excludes fees and slippage.
Holdings
| Holding | Weight | Price | 24h | Liquidity | Issuer | Trust | Mint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NVDANVIDIA | 52.1% | $213.79 | −2.12% | $8.80M | xStockscash-redeemable | Tier 2 | Xsc9…9qEh |
 AAPLApple | 22.9% | $347.45 | +1.22% | $2.26M | xStockscash-redeemable | Tier 3 | XsbE…JzJp |
 GOOGLAlphabet | 12.5% | $323.70 | −2.35% | $2.96M | xStockscash-redeemable | Tier 2 | XsCP…q6aN |
 MSFTMicrosoft | 4.2% | $517.95 | −2.30% | $2.09M | xStockscash-redeemable | Tier 3 | Xspz…dRMX |
 AMZNAmazon | 4.2% | $251.20 | −3.49% | $961.7K | xStocksshare-redeemable | Tier 3 | Xs3e…LZsg |
 TSLATesla | 4.2% | $375.82 | +1.58% | $4.46M | xStocksshare-redeemable | Tier 3 | XsDo…HzoB |
Weighting
Weight = Polymarket's live probability for each holding's outcome, floored, capped, renormalised.
- Source
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- floor
- 4%
- cap
- 50%
- Rebalance
- daily, or drift > 300 bps
- Max trade
- $40,000 per swap
Oracle marks
- NVDA
- Equity.US.NVDA/USD · shard 1
- AAPL
- Equity.US.AAPL/USD · shard 1
- GOOGL
- Equity.US.GOOGL/USD · shard 1
- MSFT
- Equity.US.MSFT/USD · shard 1
- AMZN
- Equity.US.AMZN/USD · shard 1
- TSLA
- Equity.US.TSLA/USD · shard 1
Pyth feeds. Equity feeds update in US market hours; crypto and metals 24/7. The keeper checks every feed id before it trades.
Rebalance log
| When | Action | Drift | Detail | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10m ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2131328s; AAPL: stale feed 2131339s; GOOGL: stale feed 2131338s; MSFT: stale feed 2131333s; AMZN: stale feed 2131328s; TSLA: stale feed 726937s | — |
| 25m ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2130424s; AAPL: stale feed 2130435s; GOOGL: stale feed 2130434s; MSFT: stale feed 2130429s; AMZN: stale feed 2130424s; TSLA: stale feed 726033s | — |
| 40m ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2129520s; AAPL: stale feed 2129531s; GOOGL: stale feed 2129530s; MSFT: stale feed 2129525s; AMZN: stale feed 2129520s; TSLA: stale feed 725129s | — |
| 55m ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2128616s; AAPL: stale feed 2128627s; GOOGL: stale feed 2128626s; MSFT: stale feed 2128621s; AMZN: stale feed 2128616s; TSLA: stale feed 724225s | — |
| 1h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2127712s; AAPL: stale feed 2127723s; GOOGL: stale feed 2127722s; MSFT: stale feed 2127717s; AMZN: stale feed 2127712s; TSLA: stale feed 723321s | — |
| 1h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2126808s; AAPL: stale feed 2126819s; GOOGL: stale feed 2126818s; MSFT: stale feed 2126813s; AMZN: stale feed 2126808s; TSLA: stale feed 722417s | — |
| 1h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2125904s; AAPL: stale feed 2125915s; GOOGL: stale feed 2125914s; MSFT: stale feed 2125909s; AMZN: stale feed 2125904s; TSLA: stale feed 721513s | — |
| 1h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2125000s; AAPL: stale feed 2125011s; GOOGL: stale feed 2125010s; MSFT: stale feed 2125005s; AMZN: stale feed 2125000s; TSLA: stale feed 720609s | — |
| 2h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2124096s; AAPL: stale feed 2124107s; GOOGL: stale feed 2124106s; MSFT: stale feed 2124101s; AMZN: stale feed 2124096s; TSLA: stale feed 719705s | — |
| 2h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2123192s; AAPL: stale feed 2123203s; GOOGL: stale feed 2123202s; MSFT: stale feed 2123197s; AMZN: stale feed 2123192s; TSLA: stale feed 718801s | — |
| 2h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2122289s; AAPL: stale feed 2122300s; GOOGL: stale feed 2122299s; MSFT: stale feed 2122294s; AMZN: stale feed 2122289s; TSLA: stale feed 717898s | — |
| 2h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2121384s; AAPL: stale feed 2121395s; GOOGL: stale feed 2121394s; MSFT: stale feed 2121389s; AMZN: stale feed 2121384s; TSLA: stale feed 716993s | — |
| 3h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2120481s; AAPL: stale feed 2120492s; GOOGL: stale feed 2120491s; MSFT: stale feed 2120486s; AMZN: stale feed 2120481s; TSLA: stale feed 716090s | — |
| 3h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2119577s; AAPL: stale feed 2119588s; GOOGL: stale feed 2119587s; MSFT: stale feed 2119582s; AMZN: stale feed 2119577s; TSLA: stale feed 715186s | — |
| 3h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2118673s; AAPL: stale feed 2118684s; GOOGL: stale feed 2118683s; MSFT: stale feed 2118678s; AMZN: stale feed 2118673s; TSLA: stale feed 714282s | — |
| 3h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2117769s; AAPL: stale feed 2117780s; GOOGL: stale feed 2117779s; MSFT: stale feed 2117774s; AMZN: stale feed 2117769s; TSLA: stale feed 713378s | — |
| 4h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2116864s; AAPL: stale feed 2116875s; GOOGL: stale feed 2116874s; MSFT: stale feed 2116869s; AMZN: stale feed 2116864s; TSLA: stale feed 712473s | — |
| 4h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2115960s; AAPL: stale feed 2115971s; GOOGL: stale feed 2115970s; MSFT: stale feed 2115965s; AMZN: stale feed 2115960s; TSLA: stale feed 711569s | — |
| 4h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2115056s; AAPL: stale feed 2115067s; GOOGL: stale feed 2115066s; MSFT: stale feed 2115061s; AMZN: stale feed 2115056s; TSLA: stale feed 710665s | — |
| 4h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2114152s; AAPL: stale feed 2114163s; GOOGL: stale feed 2114162s; MSFT: stale feed 2114157s; AMZN: stale feed 2114152s; TSLA: stale feed 709761s | — |
| 5h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2113248s; AAPL: stale feed 2113259s; GOOGL: stale feed 2113258s; MSFT: stale feed 2113253s; AMZN: stale feed 2113248s; TSLA: stale feed 708857s | — |
| 5h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2112345s; AAPL: stale feed 2112356s; GOOGL: stale feed 2112355s; MSFT: stale feed 2112350s; AMZN: stale feed 2112345s; TSLA: stale feed 707954s | — |
| 5h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2111441s; AAPL: stale feed 2111452s; GOOGL: stale feed 2111451s; MSFT: stale feed 2111446s; AMZN: stale feed 2111441s; TSLA: stale feed 707050s | — |
| 5h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2110537s; AAPL: stale feed 2110548s; GOOGL: stale feed 2110547s; MSFT: stale feed 2110542s; AMZN: stale feed 2110537s; TSLA: stale feed 706146s | — |
| 6h ago | refresh | — | NVDA: stale feed 2109633s; AAPL: stale feed 2109644s; GOOGL: stale feed 2109643s; MSFT: stale feed 2109638s; AMZN: stale feed 2109633s; TSLA: stale feed 705242s | — |
Risks
- Issuer
- xStocks. An issuer failure or freeze hits the basket.
- Liquidity
- Trades route through on-chain pools. Slippage is paid by the basket.
- Contracts
- Voltr, Jupiter, issuer token programs, keeper keys.
- Jurisdiction
- Not for US or UK persons. Issuers can freeze ineligible holders.
- Tracking
- Follows its own rules, net of fees and slippage. Not a published index.
Not investment advice.